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What and Who

Team Selection for Prediction Tasks

Azin Ghazimatin
Sharif University of Technology
PhD Application Talk
AG 1, AG 2, AG 3, AG 4, AG 5, SWS, RG1, MMCI  
Public Audience
English

Date, Time and Location

Monday, 4 May 2015
09:15
75 Minutes
E1 4
024
Saarbrücken

Abstract

Given an event O and a set of experts E, we describe a method for finding a subset of experts S whose aggregated opinions best predict the outcome of O. Therefore, the problem can be regarded as team formation for performing a prediction task. In order to estimate competency of each team we propose measure Sum Squared Error which uses experts’ records of predictions during past k days. For simplicity, opinion pooling is selected as the method of information aggregation. We prove in case of simple averaging of opinions, finding best team is NP-hard. We suggest some rounding and heuristic algorithms for finding near optimal solutions. Simulation results show that a variation of Tabu search used for solving maximum clique, works effectively for team selection problem.

Contact

Jennifer Gerling
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Jennifer Gerling, 05/02/2015 18:59 -- Created document.